Thirty-two million dollars. That’s what’s been spent trying to decide whether Rep. Thomas Massie keeps his seat in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District — the most expensive House primary in history, according to tracking firm AdImpact.
Voters head to the polls Tuesday, May 20, with Massie squaring off against former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, the candidate Trump endorsed and rallied with back in March. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth promoted Gallrein at a district event on Monday.
Trump’s political operation and pro-Israel groups have poured more than $16 million into ads opposing Massie. Chris LaCivita, the former Trump campaign manager now running the anti-Massie super PAC MAGA KY, posted on X recently: “Got another one coming Tuesday.”
But Massie isn’t folding.
“I’m glad he’s in with both feet,” Massie told Politico on Friday as he left the Capitol. “This will be his biggest loss ever as far as endorsements go.”
The White House pointed to Trump’s Truth Social post calling Gallrein a “WINNER WHO won’t LET YOU DOWN” and labeling Massie “a totally ineffective LOSER who has failed us so badly.” The incumbent responded on ABC that he was leading and his opponents were “desperate.”
Polling tells a murkier story — one survey had Massie ahead by just over a point, while two others showed Gallrein leading by 7 and 8 points respectively. The race has tightened after Massie held an earlier lead.
Shane Noem, chair of the Kenton County Republican Party and neutral in the contest, framed it this way: “The question remains: Will the ‘Average Joe’ Republican lean into the party, or will they lean into an outsider who’s been in the party for 14 years?”
Massie has drawn support from Tucker Carlson, former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Rep. Lauren Boebert, who rallied with him over the weekend. Trump threatened Boebert with a primary challenge for that appearance, though the filing period has already closed.
Kentucky-based GOP strategist Tres Watson, who isn’t working for either campaign, noted a wrinkle in the fight. “Massie’s sitting to the right of Trump and Trump’s never really tried to take out somebody who’s to the right of him before,” Watson said.
The congressman’s breaks with the president — opposing the tax-and-spending bill, pushing for release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, fighting the Iran intervention — have turned the race into a debate over what “America First” actually means. Massie argues the administration shifted on its core values, not him.
“This is a congressional race, but it’s also somewhat of a national movement,” Massie said, warning that a loss would discourage Republican voters from turning out in midterms. A win, he said, gives him “antibodies” against the president’s political machine.
Whether northern Kentucky’s voters buy that argument won’t be clear until Tuesday night.
Politico reported the details of this race. Read the original report.
